As I’m sure you know by now, this morning’s non-farm payroll report was relatively tame.
Why You Should Care: This report once again confirms the labor market is not overheating. Yes, the labor market is firm – good. But we still have some relatively weak data points. I’ll talk about these below. All in all, there’s nothing new here – and certainly nothing the FED can use to bolster their case to raise rates.
Taking Action: Stay the course. The tug-of-war between the FED hawks (WANT to raise rates) and the doves (no rate change) will continue. I still think the FED will raise short term rates once this year – in December. So remain fully invested.
The BLOG: Today’s jobs report is pretty much as I expected. Total ‘non-farm payroll’ increased by 151,000 folks:
This increase is far less robust than the prior two months…but a good showing nonetheless. During August, the ‘civilian labor force’ increased by 176,000 – so the jobs created just about absorbed the new entrants into the labor force.
On the other hand, the ‘participation rate’ – the percentage of Americans (who can work) looking to work remained about the same. And the measure I call the true unemployment rate – U-6 – also remained unchanged:
(Be sure to click on the image to enlarge.)
For a ‘data-dependent’ FED, there’s no new data here to help the “LET’S RAISE RATES!” camp. Once again, steady as she goes.
Have a great Labor Day weekend!
- Terry Liebman
Terry Liebman 