Monthly Archives: May 2016

In a word, yes. Why you should care:   Notwithstanding my arguments to the contrary, there is a chance the FED will increase 25 basis points in mid-June. A rate increase will have immediate effect on things like short-term indices … Continue reading →

This is an update of my Nowcasting blog from last week.   If you missed that one, I suggest you read it before continuing: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast Why you should care:  The NY FED Nowcast is a “sneak preview” into a highly probably future.  … Continue reading →

A week has passed since the last update.   Let’s see if we can get a table for 4 at Mastros Ocean Club, Newport Beach this coming Saturday. As always, if you need a quick refresher, check out the original blog: … Continue reading →

Imagine a place where the bank pays you interest after you borrow money from them to buy a home.   Could such a place exist? Yes! Denmark is that place! Why you should care:   This is a serious, unanticipated problem. … Continue reading →

During the middle ages, perfume use in western Europe grew rapidly.   According to Wikipedia, “Between the 16th and 17th centuries, perfumes were used primarily by the wealthy to mask body odors resulting from infrequent bathing.”   That’s just part of the … Continue reading →

“High debt forces interest rates to stay low, which encourages yet more debt…” says Manor Pradhan, an economist at Morgan Stanley, talking about the massive increase – globally – in ‘gross general government debt.’   An interesting statement. And a thought … Continue reading →

Do you want an advance reading of the 2016 second quarter GDP reading – even before the quarter is over?   I sure do!    This is almost like completely legal insider trading! Well, not really.   It’s still a forecast.  … Continue reading →

The FED speaks … and the markets react.    On the 18th, the FED released the ‘minutes’ from their April meeting.   Want to read them?   Here you go: Click to access fomcminutes20160427.pdf Why you should care:   The US stock and … Continue reading →

It’s been a busy day…but at long last, here is our flavorful update! As always, if you need a quick refresher, check out the original blog: https://terryliebman.wordpress.com/2016/03/02/move-over-big-mac-index-here-comes-the-steak-house-index/ Why you should care:  The US Department of Commerce ‘Bureau of Economic Analysis’ … Continue reading →

Sir Issac Newton is known as one of the most influential scientists of all time.   In the second half of the 17th century (and into the 18th), Newton was one of a number of ‘Natural Philosophers’ who sought to explain … Continue reading →